Wednesday, 17 September 2014

Very basic, simple and elaborate tutorial for Futures Contracts, Open Interest and Volume relationship



INTRO

          Futures Contracts in its simplest form are formed between two parties. A buyer and a seller. To explain why people engage in these kind of contracts can be best explained with examples

EASY EXAMPLES

Chicken farmer example

          You are planning to start a chicken farm. After asking around, you find that Red Rooster Chicken is the one which you need to farm as this breed is a local favorite.  After calculating the cost of procurement of chicks, and all other costs, you find out that the cost of farming, fully grown Red Rooster Chicken is  $3 per chicken. And you know that the market price for Red Rooster Chicken is $5 per chicken. And you can produce only 1000 chicken at a time, which  will take 3 months to mature, enough to be sold. After elaborate analysis, you calculate that you can sell the whole lot of  Red Rooster Chicken for a profit of $2000. So you invest in the farm and procure chicks. And then you hear the news.

              Another brand of chicken, Black Rooster Chicken has come to town, and people have started liking it. As the price for both the brands are the same, you start to panic. If the demand for Red Rooster dips in the next 3 months, the market price for Red Rooster may fall. So you start searching for buyers in advance.

            As it turns out, there happens to be a buyer who believes that he can buy your whole lot of Red rooster Chicken when they mature, at $5 per chicken and supply to the next town super market for $8 ( which he of course doesn't tell you ). He believes that after $1 per chicken, cost of transportation and storage, he still can have a profit of $2000 for the whole lot. So both of you enter into a contract, which is a futures contract in its simplest form.

             The contract stipulates that, no matter what the market price is, after 3 months, you should sell your whole lot of chicken (1000 Nos) for $5 per chicken, and no matter what the market price is, after 3 months, the buyer should buy your whole lot of chicken (1000 Nos) for $5 per chicken.

               After 3 months the story can end in two different ways.

Climax No 1:
           
          What you feared, happened. Market price for Red Rooster Chicken plummeted to $2 per chicken. But the buyer had to buy the whole lot of chicken for $5. You pocketed a profit of $2000 as you had hoped for. What happened to the buyer is another story.

Climax No 2: 

             The Black Rooster Chicken lasted only for a few weeks. And the Red Rooster Chicken gained in market price to $10, in 3 months time. But, you had to sell your whole lot for $5 per chicken as the contract stipulated.  Had the buyer not entered into a contract with you, he would have had to buy the chicken from the local market for $10. And you pocketed a profit of $2000 only.

Hedging

                But you had always known that both scenarios would have worked out. You just wanted to remove the risk of a falling market price. You didn't hope for an exorbitant profit, if the market price gained to $10. This strategy of minimizing the risk is called hedging. You can also see that the buyer also hedged his risk of an unexpected gain in the market price.

Other takeways
           
1. Now you can understand that a futures contract  always has a buyer and a seller on both sides of the contract.

2. The current market  price of a commodity or any goods or any securities for which the contract is written between two parties is called the spot price. In the previous example, the spot price at the time of investment was $5, then in scenario 1, it decreased to $2, and in scenario 3, it increased to $10.

3. You entered the futures contract believing that the prices would. You would profit only if the price of the chicken falls below $5 after 3 months. If it goes up to $10 you still will have to sell at $5. People who agree to sell a commodity at the contract price, who take positions in a contract believing that the spot price will fall in the future are called the Shorters. The buyer has agreed to buy the chicken at $5 believing that the prices would go up. If it falls below $5 after 3 months, he still will have to buy at $5, thus incurring a loss. People who agree to buy a commodity at the contract price, who take positions in a contract believing that the spot price will go up in the future are called the Longers.
         
Example of a simple currency futures contract          

        Suppose you  would like to purchase a software from an Indian company and sell it to a company in the US. The  company in the US has agreed to buy the software from you for $115000/-. The cost of the software is Rs 6 million in India, which at the current rate ( Rs 60/ Dollar) is $100000/-. The Indian company has agreed to deliver the software at the end of 3 months from now. If the deal works out, you can pocket $15000/- in 3 months.

        But, you very well know that the US dollar to Indian Rupee rate is prone to wild fluctuations. And according to your knowledge, the Indian  Rupee might appreciate against Dollar in 3 months time to Rs 50 per Dollar. Which means for each Indian Rupee, you have to pay 2 cents, 3 months later. After calculating, you find out that, you may have to pay $120000/- for the same software, 3 months later, as the Indian company accepts payment only in Indian Rupee.

        After working out the profit in the deal, you come to the conclusion that, you will lose $5000/-, if the Indian currency appreciates against the dollar as you expect. You wish that the currency rate of Rs 60/ dollar remains the same.

        After asking around, you find out there are some of your Indian friends, who believe that Indian currency will actually depreciate against dollar to Rs 70/Dollar. And they are all worried because they all have Indian currencies with them, which will depreciate. It so happens that one of your friends have Rs 6 million with him, which at current rate is worth $100000/-.  If the indian currency deprecates to Rs 70/ dollar his Rs 6 million will be worth only $85700/-, 3 months later.  So you convince him to enter into a contract, which will be profitable for him if his prediction come true.

        The contract is simple. You are ready to sell $100000 to him for Rs 6 million in Indian Rupee at the rate of Rs 60 per dollar, 3 months from now, no matter what the currency rate is, after 3 months. If his prediction comes true, then after 3 months, the exchange rate will be Rs 70/Dollar. But he will still get $100000/- for his Rs 6 million after, 3 months.

       But you also know that your risk is eliminated, because you believe that the currency rate will appreciate to Rs 50/dollar. But even if that happens, you still can get Rs 6 million for $100000/- at the end of 3 months. And you can buy that software from India for $100000/- and can re sell it for $ 115000/-

        Now, here we have to understand that, there is a buyer and seller in this contract. Are you a buyer or a seller? It depends on the contract. In this contract, you are willing to buy Indian Rupee at Rs 60/- dollar in the future. And your Indian friend is willing to sell Indian Rupee for Rs 60/dollar. So here, you are the buyer and he is the seller.

        Even if the Indian Rupee appreciates to Rs 50/Dollar, 3 months later, you can still buy the Indian rupee for a lower cost of Rs 60 per dollar.   And if the Indian Rupee depreciates to Rs 70/Dollar, 3 months later, your friend can  still sell the Indian rupee for a higher value of Rs 60 per dollar. In this case you are protecting the value of your dollar, and he is protecting the value of his rupee.

        If you think carefully, either the buyer or the seller will lose money if the currency rate changes. If the  Indian Rupee appreciates to Rs 50 per Dollar after 3 months, your friend still has sell you his Rupee at Rs 60 per Dollar. That means, he is buying your dollar at Rs 10 higher than he normally has to pay. And if the Indian Rupee depreciates to Rs 70 per Dollar after 3 months, you are selling a  dollar for Rs 60, whereas you could have got Rs 70/-.

        It can also be said that, you are taking a  long position on Indian Rupee, as you hope to buy an appreciated  Indian rupee for a higher value. Your friend is taking a short position on Indian Rupee, as he hopes to sell a depreciated  Indian rupee for a higher value.

FUTURES  IN A MODERN STOCK MARKET

       If you are a newbie in futures trading in a stock market, you must have wondered what happens behind the curtain of a futures market.

Market Maker

         If you know anything about shares, you must know that shares are pieces of ownership of a company distributed among various people. Those who have a good amount of these shares, can actually control a company by using their voting power.

          These days all the allotted shares are held in a de materialised account. Just like cash held in electronic form. Just like banks, there are stock exchanges that gives you a venue to trade your stocks. They create a market, where other people with their stocks, arrive and trade. They are the market makers.

Futures 

          Before going through the definition of futures, you have to understand two kinds of prices.

1. Spot price

             It is the current price of the underlying stock on which the futures is based on. Every futures have their own underlying stocks. The relation between the futures and the underlying stocks will become apparent when you read on

2. Futures price

             It is the price of the position you hold. How this price is arrived at will also be apparetn when you read on.

 What are futures.
   
            A futures is a contract between the market maker and the traders. The contract stipulates that the market maker will ensure that, the difference between the spot price of the under lying stock and the price of the futures held by traders will be settled on a daily basis between the buyer/seller and the market maker. 

         This is the most important thing to understand. There is no contract between a buyer and a seller. There isn't any physical delivery of the underlying stock between the seller and the buyer as seen in the chicken farmer example. When a buyer buys futures, it becomes a long position, and when a seller sells futures, it becomes a short position. Each positions are unique. You can sell your long position or buy your short position at anytime, given there is a buyer or a seller for your positions.  Daily settlement of the difference between the spot price of the underlying stock and the futures price is undertaken by the Market make only.

            To understand how the futures is settled, you have to read on.

Derivatives

         Now you can understand why futures contract are called derivative. Its because  the settlement is done depending on the difference between the futures price and the spot price.

Longers and Shorters
  
          People who believe that the spot price would go up are called Longers, and their futures position is called a long position.

         People who believe that the spot price would go down are called Shorters, and their futures position  is called a Short position.

Bid price and Ask price and Spread

          Bid price is the price at which a buyer puts up a buy order. Ask price is the price at which a seller puts up his sell order. The difference between the bid and the ask price is called the spread.

Futures Pricing

       The pricing of the futures of a stock, has nothing to do with the pricing of the underlying stock. ie if futures of the stock of a company XYZ is priced $222, when the price of the stock is $220, the futures pricing has nothing to do with either the underlying stock of the company, or with anything else.

         Futures pricing, simply depends on the price arrived by a buyer and a seller. The buyer and the seller arrives at a price to make a profit. The price of the futures of a stock, which is displayed on a computer screen, can either be the last traded price, or the average price or anything else. It is normally the Last Traded Price.

         Last traded price is the price at which the last trade has happened between a buyer and a seller. When the next trade happens at a different price, that price becomes the last traded price.

Why not trade stocks only

         Why trade such complicated instruments. Why not buy some stock if you believe that it will go up in price. This is where the margin plays a role. Every market maker provides margins for a futures trader.

         If you wish to buy 1000 nos of $100 shares of XYZ corp, you will have to put up $100000. Now if your exchange gives you a margin of 1:100 for the futures of the same XYZ corp, then you can buy futures. You know that the lot size for the futures of XYZ corp, is 1000 nos per lot. You can buy 1 lot ie 1000 nos of $100 futures of XYZ corp for $1000 only. This is what is meant by a margin of 1:100. You need to put up 1/100th of the value of the futures. And you can have the same profit if price of the underlying stock goes up. This is because the futures price more or less follows the spot price. Why so? Follow on.

Why does the futures price closely follow the underlying stock price

          You visit your broker's office. You see that the stock of XYZ corp is trading at $100. Since you are very clever, and since you have read this blog, you decide to buy 1 lot of XYZ corp futures. You know that 1 lot has 1000 nos of XYZ corp futures. And you see that the Last traded price is $102. But since you have read in this blog, that the price of the futures is determined only by the buyer and the seller, you decide to put a buy order for 1 lot of XYZ corp at $20. The broker looks at you as if you don't know anything. Then a message in the screen reports that $20 is no allowed, the maximum deviation from the last traded price, is 20%. So you modify your buy order to $80. Now you find out that the nearest seller is at $106.

        Now you understand an important principle of the futures trading. At any time, a trader will assume that the probability of the price of the underlying stock, at the expiry date of the futures is around the current price of that stock, most of the time.

         Traders always believe that the stock price will ( in the worst case) hover around the current spot price.. This is because, the expiry date for a stock futures contract is normally a short period, most of the time, 1 month. So if the trend of the stock is upward, a Longer(buyer) will naturally assume the spot price to go up, and in the worst case to stay the same,  And a Shorter will believe that the price of the stock will decrease towards the expiry date or in the worst case will remain the same.

         Normally people do not think that anything exceptionally good or bad will happen to the underlying stock. This shortsightedness is what allows the futures price to follow the underlying stock.

         Now when you put the buy order at $80, the Shorters will think that if they sold you at $80, and in the worst case, if the spot price remains the same, then he will lose $20. So he will always try to sell you at a price above $100, which is the spot price of the underlying stock.

         Since you finally understood this principle, you increase your buy order to $100. You are sure a seller would agree to sell you at this price. But no one is willing to sell you at this price. This is because the general market is in an uptrend. So the Shorters would like to sell you at a price above $100, just in case, the stock moves up. Now you understand that why the Last traded price was at $102. So you increase the price to $101. Suddenly a seller matches your bid price and the trade happens at $101. And the last traded price resets to $101.

Daily settlement and Margin calls 

          This is a bit complicated. You may have to read this section many times to understand the process.

Leverage

         If you have gone through the chicken farmer example, you must have seen that both farmer and the buyer, have to honor the contract at the expiry date of the contract. And mainly these kind of contracts are tailor made for hedging purposes.

       But stock market futures contracts are made mostly for speculative purposes, though some traders may use it for hedging. Most of the traders  are attracted to futures because of the leverage these kind of instruments give.

        Leverage is the ability of a trader to buy and sell an instrument with an amount which is smaller than the actual value of the trade. With a little money you can trade large amount of instruments and can make potentially huge profits (or losses).

          Since huge leverages are used, if a stock is going down the drain, a person who has taken a trade against the trend of the underlying stock might lose large amount of money, if he holds a futures contract till its expiry. By the time, the contracts expire, the trader who has taken a position against the trend, will find his account burned.

         As you have read in the beginning, all the settlements on a daily basis is done by the market maker. Which means, the market maker has to credit money to a trader who has mad a profit, and debit money from a trader, who has made a loss. When a Longer guy takes a long position on an underlying stock which is plummeting, then he will have to give huge amount of money to the Market maker. There is a possibility of someone absconding without paying his liabilities, or huge litigation costs for the brokers or the exchange.

             In order to make settlements on a daily basis, and for protecting the recovery of losses, the exchanges have put in place two mechanisms; Margin Money and Daily Settlement.

Margin Money

            As you have read, the market maker debits money from the  losers account and also credits the profits in the gainers account. So the distribute profit and losses. They also take commission from both the buyer and the seller for each trade. They also need to minimize risk of non payment of liabilities. In order to make payments for profits and retrieve the losses, the market makers pools money from the traders. Every trader has to pay some margin money to the market maker, if he wishes to buy or sell futures. This money is a fraction of the actual value of futures traded. The margin money is set by the market maker almost daily and depends upon the following.

1. What is the volatility of the underlying stock. If the stock plummets, then the market maker's only option to retrieve money from a buyer is to debit money from the margin money he has put up.

2. What is the liquidity of the futures. If the number of buyer and trader for a futures is low, then if a fall out happens, a buyer cannot exit his trade, or if the stock sky rockets, then the seller also might not be able to cover his position.

3. Various other things.

Daily settlement 

Consider the following example

           A longer has taken a long position by buying into a contract at a price of $102. He pays the margin money set by the Market maker, which is $10000. He has taken 10 lots of 100 nos each. The underlying stock price at that time is $100. All of a sudden, some bad news circulates about the company, and the stock starts to move down. After a few days, the futures price also moves down to $80. Now the longer panics and tries to exit. He puts up a sell order for $80. But the nearest buyer is at $77. So he modifies the sell order to $77 and the trade happens. But now the now the longer owes the Market Maker $25*1000, ie $25000. The longer is unable to pay such a huge sum to the market maker.

            So instead of allowing the longer and the shorter to hold the contract until it expires, without making any payments, the market maker decides to settle the contract on a daily basis. The basic idea is to settle whatever the difference between the spot price and the contract price on a daily basis when the market closes.

            Continuing with the example, suppose there is only 30 days for the futures to expire, The contract price on the day 1, is $102.  Suppose the closing price of the futures (The last traded price at the end of the day) is $100. And  the closing price of the underlying stock price is $98. Then,the maker maker takes, the difference of the contract price and the closing price of the futures . In this case it is $102-$100= $2. If buyer had exited the trade at the end of the day at the closing price of the futures, that is, at $100, he would have incurred a loss of $2*1000=$2000. So the market maker debits the loss ( which he might have incurred had he exited ), from the buyer's account,

            This is done by a simple method. The exchange sells the long position of the longer  at the closing price of $100 and buys the short position of the shorter at the same closing price. So when the market closes, the contract is settled, and the buyer and the seller no longer holds any contract. The loss incurred by the buyer,$2000 is debited from his margin money and credited to the seller. But on the next day morning, a new contract is created between the buyer and the seller for $100.

              So in effect, the contract is reset to $100 and the difference is settled with both the buyer and  seller. This goes on till the expiry, if the buyer and the seller chooses not to liquidate their position. There must be other buyers and sellers in the market, who have traded futures at different prices, but their futures are also settled and reset at the closing price of the futures.

            Remember, The futures prices are reset at the previous closing price of the futures and not the previous closing price of the underlying stock. But the futures price is settled at the price of the underlying stock at the time of the expiry. Please read on to know how this is done.

Margin Call

              Continuing with the previous example. What happens when the price of the futures falls to a closing price $80 in a days time,  and the buyer couldn't exit his long position at $77 only.  In that case, even if the market maker resets the prices, the buyer has payed only a margin of $10000. The market maker has to debit $102-$80=$22, loss per futures, ie $22*1000=$22000, from the buyers account, in order to reset the prices.

             So the market maker makes a margin call. The market maker demands $12000 or more from the buyer, if he wishes to trade again in the futures market at all. If he doesn't pay up the margin money called, then the market maker retrieves the money by either selling his other assets or through litigation. He will also be banned from the futures market.

              If the price starts plummeting at a very high rate, then the market maker might sell the long positions, without asking the buyers, and then make the margin call. This is applicable to the sellers as well, if the prices sky rocket.

Settlement at the time of expiry

            If you have read the daily settlement section, you must have understood that, the prices are reset every morning to the previous day closing prices. So you can only imagine that, the price of the futures you have held till expiry,  will also be reset to the previous day closing price, at the day of expiry .

             Continuing with the earlier example, you had bought the futures at $102. After resetting daily, the price of the futures at the day of expiry is $105, say. And you still are not willing to sell it. At the end of the day of the expiry, the underlying stock closes at $106.

                 Now the market maker has to honor the contract. So it will assign a value of $106 for your futures, which you had bought at $102 at day 1, and credit the margin money and the profit back to your account. As you had paid a margin money of $10000, and your profit is $4*1000, Your account will be credited $14000 minus the transaction costs like brokerage, tax etc. Suppose you had sold the futures ie taken a short position at day 1, at a price of $102. Then also the market maker assigns $106 for your short position and debits the loss of $4*1000 from your account and credits the margin money of $10000. So you will be credited $6000 in you account.

Can you buy and sell between the Day 1 and the expiry date

                  Of course you can. You can buy on Day 3, the long position which the buyer bought at $102. You can buy it at any price the buyer agrees to sell it to you. As usual the price of the long position on Day 3 will also be hovering around the underlying stock price. Say the stock price at Day 3, at the time of trading is $90. The last traded price of futures is say $88. And you put a buy order at $87.Suddenly, the buyer who bought a long position at Day 1 is ready to sell to you at $87. The trade happens. The buyer who sold to you loses $102-$87=$15 per futures in his account ie $15000. Now on Day 6 you can sell it at $95, if there is another buyer available, who is willing to buy your long position a that price. You will make a profit of $8000.

               The mechanism of daily trades are elucidated graphically in coming sessions. So please read on.

  OPEN INTEREST & VOLUME

           Before we begin talking about open interest and volume, let us go through some figures, which illustrate what happens in a futures market place.


                                                                          Snapshot 1



     
                Futures are offered for trading in a series. If they are 1 month futures, then they will be Jan series, Feb series etc. And they all have an expiry date, usually in the last week of the month. Any trader can choose to trade any series, provided there is a trader in the opposite position. If you are a buyer, then there has to be a seller and vice versa. Normally trading volume is highest in the current series. If the day in which you have decided to trade is January, then Jan series will have the maximum volume of trades, then the Feb series and so on. This is because traders do no like to forecast for long term.

Series beginning


               Inorder for trade to begin in a series, two things have to happen.


1. The series has to be opened to the traders by the market maker.
2. There must be matching buy orders and sell orders for trades to be executed.
           
              Snapshot 1 is a snapshot of the futures market for a series, when the series has just been open by the market maker for trading. As you can see, there aren't any orders put up by any trader, yet.


                                                                        Snapshot 2




                             
                 
                    Snapshot 2 is the snapshot of the market when the buy orders and sell orders have been put up by the traders. You can see that, none of the buy orders and sell orders have matched. So no trade has been executed yet.

                                                                       Snapshot 3



In snapshot 3, the arrows represent order matching. Either the buyer or the seller or both relented and the trade is executed
                       
                                                                       Snapshot 4




Open Interest

                     In snapshot 4, you can see that long positions and short positions are formed.  And all the long positions and short positions ate formed in pairs. As you can see from the snapshot, a pair of long and short position is called an open interest. Any two buy order and sell order can be selected for counting an open interest. Normally, open interest, is referred to the total number of pairs of long or short positions that remain open, in a period.


                                                                    
                                                                     Snapshot 5
                                                                       



                                                                       Snapshot 6






Type of trades


                There are for different types of trade.

Type 1 

                This type of trade happens when the price of a standalone buy order is matched with a stand alone sell order.  As you can see in Snapshot 5 and 6, a new open interest is formed in this type of trade.

Type 2

                 This type of trade happens in a existing open interest. When a  Long position is closed against a Short position, type 2 trade happens. It can happen within any two Long and short position. Only condition is that, the price has to be agreed between the buyer and the seller. These kind of trades mostly happen at the time of expiry, though it can happens in any day.

Type 3   

                   This type of trade also happens in a existing open interest.  In order to cover his Short position, a seller might put out a buy order. If it is matched by a seller who doesn't have an existing short position, then this trade happens. As you can see in snapshot 5 and 6, the open interest is not closed in this case, just the sellers are exchanged.

Type 4


                      This type of trade also happens in a existing open interest.  In order to exit his Long position, a buyer might put out a sell order. If it is matched by a buyer who doesn't have an existing long position, then this trade happens. As you can see in snapshot 5 and 6, the open interest is not closed in this case, just the buyers are exchanged.


Volume


                        Volume is the number of trades happened in a period. As you can see all the for types of trades increases the volume, while open interest increases, decreases or remain the same, depending on the type of trade.



The following flow chart brings clarity on the process of trade.

                                                          Flow chart on the order process



                                                                       Snapshot 7



               
                                                                       Snapshot 8



                     Snapshot 7 and 8 happens at the time of expiry of a series. The market maker identifies all the pairs of open interests, and assigns settles each buyer against a seller. It can be any buyer against any seller as shown in Snapshot 7 and 8.

CONCLUSION


                   Futures trading is very popular among stock market, currency and other derivatives traders, because of the leverage, the market makers provides. Any body can make large profits in futures trading, but can give them all up and more, eventually.


Wednesday, 10 September 2014

John Murphy's Patterns in a nut shell

     These are the rules compiled from the text,  Technical Analysis Of The Financial Markets by John Murphy. I have taken pains to compile these rules, for my own personal use. But I have also published it so that, others can gain from it. It is most recommended to read the full text by John Murphy before going through this material.

All the figures are edited and used from the book-Technical Analysis Of The Financial Markets by John Murphy

TRENDLINES


1. Wait for the prices to close 3% below the trendline, to confirm a trendline breach.

2. Along with rule 1, wait for the prices to close below the trendline for atleast two consecutive days, to confirm a breach of the trendline.

3. While using trendline fans, the third line breach is considered to be a valid trend reversal.







3. After the breach, the price of a security generally tend to move upto the same distance in the opposite direction of the trend, as the last top or bottom. If a channel is present, then the width of the channel is the distance upto which, the prices will move, once the basic trendline is breached.



5. Most important and healthy trend lines follows a slope of 45°. If there are steeper lines, they might finally be breached and corrected to a 45° trend line. And if there is a shallow trendline, the trend might either be not valid or will gather steepness over time.




6. Even if there is a trend, a channel may not exist.

RETRACEMENT

1. The retracement levels according to dow theory are 33%, 50% and 66%.

2. The retracement levels from the dow theory can be combined with Fibonacci retracements of 
38.2%, 50%, 61.8% to form ranges of retracements as 33-39% and 62-66%.

REVERSALS

1. A reversal happens when  a new top is reached in an uptrend, but the prices finally close below the previous close. Or, when a new bottom is reached in a downtrend, but the prices closes above the previous close.

2. This can happen in any time frame, but when the price reversal happens on fridays in a weekly time frame, or on month ends in  a monthly time frame, then the significance increases.

3. On the reversals if volume is is especially high, then it might indicate a trend reversal or atleast an intermediate correction.



GAPS

1. Weekly and monthly gaps are very significant, but occur rarely. Some gaps are filled and some are not. The three types of gaps given below, when satisfied with certain other conditions, are most likely not filled.

BREAKAWAY GAP
       
2. A break away gap occurs after an important price pattern is completed ( like Head and Shoulders ) and the resistance is finally broken or, when a major trend line is broken due to a trend reversal.

3.  If accompanied by heavy volume, break away gaps are most likely not filled. 

4. Break away gaps form a significant trend support, the trend which the gap already started. 

5. A close below the Breakaway gap, while in an uptrend, usually signifies weakness and a trend reversal.

RUNAWAY OR MEASURING GAP

6. A measuring gap occurs almost in the middle of a trend. It confirms the smooth continuation of the trend.

7. Measuring gap also acts as supports and are most likely not filled. And if at all, when filled, can signify a trend reversal.

EXHAUSTION GAP

8. This occurs as a last gasp, at the end of the trend.

9. It is confirmed, when the prices finally closes below the gap after a few days or weeks of the occurrence. 

10. Once the gap level is broken, a significant trend reversal can be expected.

11. Sometimes the gap level is broken with another breakaway gap, in the opposite direction. As a result, the price movement between the exhaustion gap and the subsequent break away gap looks like an island. When an island reversal happens, a trend shift can be expected.



Note that the island formed on the top usually contains more than one price bar ( In the figure above, there is only one price bar in the island area )



REVERSAL PATTERNS

    The price picture patterns are used to predict what happens, after a trendline is broken and the market moves side ways; whether the market moves sideways or the trend reverses.

GENERAL RULES

1. The major reversal patterns are Head and Shoulders, Double/Triple tops and bottoms, V (spike) tops and bottoms and Rounding (saucer) patterns.

2. The major continuation patterns are triangles, flags, pennants, wedges and rectangles.

3. Volume levels are used in confirming the indications of these patterns.

4. These patterns can also be used to measure the extent of the subsequent movements.

5. A prior trend should exist as a prerequisite.

6. A major trendline needs to be broken before the pattern manifests.

7. Larger the pattern, the more significant it becomes, and greater the subsequent price movement.

8. Topping patterns are shorter, more volatile and fast forming while bottoming patterns takes time to form and are less volatile. 

9. Therefore, though bottoming patterns are less risky, topping patterns are more rewarding, as prices falls faster than they build up.

10. Sometimes, the breaking of a major trendline coincides with the completion of a price pattern.

11. The completion of price pattern should accompany an increase in volume, especially in bottoms.

12. If volume do not increase during an upside break out, then the pattern cannot be trusted.


HEAD AND SHOULDERS PATTERN





1. Most of the other reversal patterns are a variation of H & S pattern.

2. Volume expands on reaching each new crests, and contracts on each new troughs, before the pattern starts to form ( before the trend loses steam ).

3. When the left shoulder starts to form, the volume may get lighter than the previous crests. This is an indication that the trend is losing steam, and a pattern formation can be anticipated.

4. When trend line is broken, there is a possibility of a H&S formation. Volumes get increasingly lighter on crests and increasingly heavier on subsequent troughs.

5. Formation of point E below the highest peak of point C, is when the trader starts to prepare for a position. When this happens, its almost sure that a sideways movement has started, and liquidation of long positions may be wiser. By this time a Neck line can be drawn.

Neckline and Subsequent actions.


a) The H&S pattern is confirmed when the neckline is broken.


b) Neck line is the new trendline, drawn after the sideways movement starts. A return move on lighter volume with peak at point G can be expected if the neckline is broken with not so heavy volume. If the neck line is broken with very heavy volumes, a return move may not be there or a small return may occur.

c) Either a 1-3% close below the neckline or two successive closes below the neckline, has to be used as a criteria for the H&S formation confirmation. Other wise, resumption of the uptrend can happen.

d) Though volume can be lighter in the second peak ( Head part ) it has to be lighter on the third peak ( Right shoulder ). The volume should be heavier while the breaking of the neck line, and should be lighter again on the return move, and should increase again, on the subsequent downward move. The volume has to pick up at some point in the down trends, AT THE LEAST.

e) Since neck line is a sideways trend, the minimum target for profit booking, is always the width of the trend, in this case, the height of the head from the neckline. ie, the prices are most likely to move below the neckline, the same distance as the height of the head from the neck line. Maximum target depends upon the support levels, retracement levels etc. Minimum price target should also be adjusted to price support levels.

f) The slope of the neck line is slightly upward in case of a top H & S and slightly downward in case of an inverse H& S. However exceptions do occur. 

Inverse H & S pattern






a) The main difference between the topping and bottoming pattern is volume. A reversal from any downtrend happens only when there is absolute demand. The markets should trade on very heavy volumes when the trend reversal happens, when new peaks are reached, especially when the neck line is breached. Whereas, the market prices may fall on inertia alone ( lack of demand or direction ) on market tops. The volume is absolutely critical on reversal on inverse H & S. If not, it is risky to take trades on bottom reversals.


b) The resulting new uptrend should also be on heavier volumes.

c) There is a greater tendency for a return move.

Complex H&S Patterns

a) There might some times be a formation of a double head, or double shoulders.

b) If double left shoulders are present, then double right shoulders also have to be present.

TRIPLE TOPS AND BOTTOMS





1. These are actually a slight variation of H&S pattern and are rarer.

2. All the rules for head and shoulders pattern should be followed.

DOUBLE TOPS AN BOTTOMS





1. This kind of pattern follows the same rules as the H& S pattern except those mentioned below.

2.  Point B price level acts as the neckline here. The breaking of this line accompanied by heavy volume confirms the pattern.

3. There is no right shoulder for this pattern, and therefore, after the second peak (The head as in H&S) is formed, and when the neckline is broken ( Point B support), the pattern is completed.

False Double Tops


In order to avoid false double tops the following rules needs to be followed


a) In an uptrend or down trend, sometimes, consequent peaks or troughs may be of the same level, which is quite normal as shown in the fig below




b) Volume pattern should be exactly followed as of H&S pattern.

c) The neckline has to be broken with higher volume, to confirm the pattern as shown in the figure below.



d) The More the gap between the two peaks, the more probable for the reversal.

e) Some times, a close of 1-3% above the first peak level, or a two consecutive close,  are used to filter out the false break outs. But Volume pattern will filter out most of the false break outs.

SAUCER



1. They are slow and gradual in forming.

2. They might span several years. It is difficult to predit how long it takes to form the pattern or how far the prices will move in the opposite direction.

3.  The longer it takes, the more significant it becomes.

SPIKES




1.  They happen, when the market gets over extended and a sudden adverse news cause the prices to fall very abruptly.


2. A daily or weekly reversal accompanied by heavy volume is sometimes the only warning.


ASCENDING AND DESCENDING TRIANGLES AS TREND REVERSAL PATTERNS

Please look at the end of the descending triangles discussion.

WEDGE REVERSAL PATTERN

Please look at the end of the Wedge pattern discussion.


CONTINUATION PATTERNS

GENERAL RULES

1. Continuation patterns are usually formed in short or intermediate time duration.

2. Sometimes, some of the continuation patterns can act as reversal patterns in special cases.

3. Volume should diminish along the progress of the pattern.

4. Please read also, the H&S pattern rules carefully 

TRIANGLES

1.  Triangles are usually intermediate patterns, but some times occur in long duration, which are much more significant.

2. Minimum requirement of a triangle is 4 reversal points, but sometimes triangles with six reversal points can also be seen.

3. The prices must break out between two thirds to three forth, the length of the triangle. If the prices do not break out even after three forth of the length of the triangle then the triangle has lost significance.

4. A return move can be expected towards the broken line.

5. A broken line reverses its rule after the break out. ie in an uptrend, the resistance line ( the upper line ) is broken. But after the break out, the upper line becomes the support line.

6. Diminishing volume rule applies.

7. As in the reversal patterns, to confirm an uptrend continuity, the volume should be more in upward movements within the triangles. This is more significant in uptrend confirmations than down trend confirmations.

Symmetrical Triangle




1. Referring to the fig above, only after fixing the fourth point, the symmetrical triangle formation can be confirmed.


2. The two third to three forth break out rule applies here.



3.  Diminishing volume rule applies.

4. Rule 7 for the Triangles to be followed.

5. To measure the movement, draw a trend line as shown in the fig below, then follow the channel measurement rule. Please read also, the H&S pattern rules carefully.



Ascending Triangle


1. This pattern indicates there are more strength in buyers than sellers. And is generally considered as as a bullish pattern.


2. It works as a consolidation, and a trend confirming pattern in a bullish trend.



3. Break out move normally happens with heavy volume, return move with light volume can be expected.

4. The minimum target distance after the break out can be taken as the width of the triangle base.

5. Diminishing volume rule applies. But the strength of the volume should be slightly tilted towards the upward movements. Please read also, the H&S pattern rules carefully.

6. These triangles are more of an intermediate pattern, with long terms, rare. Short term formations are called Pennants, which are discussed shortly.

Descending Triangle



Descending triangle follows the exact same rule as that of the ascending triangle as it is a mirror image of the ascending triangle.

Ascending and Descending Triangles as trend reversing patterns.

1. Both ascending and descending triangles sometimes appears as topping and bottoming patterns. 

2. If an ascending triangle appears at the end of a down trend, and if a break out happens, then a trend change can happen. Same for the descending triangles which appear at market tops. Remembering rule 7 for triangles helps.

BROADENING FORMATION



1. This is a relatively rare pattern.

2. The volume tends to increase along the formation of the pattern.

3. This situation signals a market which is out of control.

4. It occurs when public participation is very high, especially at major market tops. It normally occurs at the end of major bull markets and is a bearish pattern.

FLAGS AND PENNANTS

1. Flags and pennants are quite common, are similar in appearances, occur at about the same place in an existing trend, and have same characteristics.

2. They occur when market pauses briefly to catch breath after a steep move with heavy volume. when they are at the process of formation, the volume declines, then again bursts on a break out.

3. They rarely produce a trend reversal.


4. Flag is a parallelogram with a slop against the slope of the trend. 



5.  Pennant is a small symmetrical triangle.

6. The volume should decrease along the formation of the pattern. and the break out should be with heavier volume.

7. They take shorter time to form usually two to three weeks, down trend patterns are shorter in duration.

8. Both the patterns are formed in the mid point of a market trend.

WEDGE PATTERN






1.  Wedge pattern follows all the rules of the triangle pattern, except its implications and rules cited below. Please read also, the H&S pattern rules carefully.

2. The wedge pattern has a noticeable slant.

3. A down ward slopping wedge is a bullish pattern, and vice versa.

WEDGE REVERSAL PATTERN

Since a falling wedge is a bullish pattern, when it occurs at the end of a bear market, it might signal a trend reversal and vice versa.

RECTANGLE PATTERN






1. Rectangle is a trading range, a congestion area.

2. Rectangle pattern with 6 price swings, can be misinterpreted as a triple top reversal. Triple top reversal volume rules needs to be checked and the pattern ruled out, before confirming a rectangular pattern. Normally the rectangular patter resolves towards the trend direction. However, the direction of the heavier volume side determines to which side the rectangle break out finally will happen.

3. Minimum target rule follows the channel minimum target rules. Please read also, the H&S pattern rules carefully.


CONTINUATION HEAD AND SHOULDERS PATTERN







1. The continuation H& S pattern forms inverted to the reversal version in a continuing trends.

2. However the rules follow that of the rectangle formation.


Tuesday, 2 September 2014

Current Account Deficit Vs Fiscal Deficit, a simple explanation

I am starting with an extremely simple definition for the two.

Current Account Deficit

          It is the difference between the total exports and imports of the country. Current Account Deficit in a period happens when the imports in dollars crosses the exports for a country.

Fiscal Deficit 

          It is the difference between the total revenue ( Mainly from taxes ) of a country and the total expenditure ( Mainly public expenditures ) of a country. Fiscal deficit in a period happens when the expenditures crosses the revenue.